Negative campaigning is hardly new, and Democrats are dishing dirt against Republicans too. But mudslinging is crucial to the Republican plan for this year's midterm elections, because the party's hold on power will probably hinge on shifting attention from the unpopular war in Iraq and other national issues that cut against them.
"When people are looking at national issues that are not breaking our way, what you want to do is focus on your opponent," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a former Republican National Committee chief of staff. "You've got to play the field's conditions. They demand very tough tactics."
Cole spelled out that approach in a recent strategy memo to House Republicans: "Define your opponent immediately and unrelentingly…. Do not let up — keep the tough ads running right up to election day. Don't make the mistake of pulling your ads in favor of a positive rotation the last weekend."
Republican incumbents this year began running attack ads earlier than ever. But the hardest-hitting are yet to come.
"You haven't seen the majority of the negative ads yet," said Carl Forti, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, where a staff of 10 has been deployed on opposition research.
The strategy rests on the widely held belief that negative political ads make more of an impression on voters than positive ones.
GOP consultant Terry Nelson said current voter cynicism may be particularly fertile ground for negative advertising because voters expect the worst from politicians.
"Voters are in some ways more ready to accept the negative about politicians" than the positive, Nelson said. "They often say they would like to see a more reasoned debate in campaigns and more talk about the ideas, but in fact they often respond to negative ads because they tend to find them more credible."
Read, as they say, the whole thing, and note especially the first few and final few paragraphs on the Santorum ad we'll be watching Wednesday.
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