"The next president will disappoint you"

Boston University's Andrew Bacevich in the LAT.

I'd align myself with his central claim, as would, I think it is fair to say, most political scientists -- do not underestimate the institutional constrains upon Presidential action. The core rigidities of Madison's Constitutional framework have only hardened, thanks especially to the decline of party power and (counterintuitively?) the increased partisanship fostered by Congressional redisctricting, the rise of interest-group influence, the state of campaign financing, and the current near-absence of broad-based social movements.

But (and it's a big but, if you'll excuse the expression), should Obama bring massive numbers of new voters into the system (McCain's voters, all else equal, are already in the system), along with significantly larger same-Party majorities into Congress, some of that political and institutional inertia might (empahsize: might) be disrupted. This is, after all, one of the lessons of FDR's early Presidency and, to a lesser extent, LBJ's post-1964 political environment.

So, barring seizmic shifts, temper expectation.